William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2008
COMMENT: Obama has fallen into a trap. He's debating the bottom of the GOP ticket. He looks smaller, even desperate. He may have to do this for a time while Missing Persons searches for Joe Biden.
Comment: This is the only recent poll showing Obama with any kind of lead, and it's only a single point.
UPDATE AT 10:28 P.M. ET: I have no idea what possessed Barack Obama to make the "pig" statement he did today, but it certainly won't do him any good. Let me just review. He was obviously alluding to Sarah Palin's comment that the difference between a pit bull and a hockey mom was lipstick. He claimed she represented failed policies. He then said, “You can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig." True, that's an old cliché, but the circumstances make it politically dangerous. The GOP is already having a field day. While the episode may pass in a day, it's another day when Obama appears foolish, and must play defense. Not good...at least for his side.
DISGRACEFUL Posted at 6:38 p.m. ET You'd think the MSM would know by now to show a little restraint in writing about Sarah Palin. No such luck. The AP today is out with an obnoxious hit piece that wins today's award for snideness:
Hand-picked? No. Just about everyone in journalism asked to interview her, and she agreed to a two-day visit from Charlie Gibson of ABC, a thorough professional. She didn't "hand-pick" him, which implies that she called and asked for him to come. Gibson is tough, but fair. Also, Governor Palin has been interviewed many times. The press coverage is available. It's understandable that she wants to get up to speed on the national circuit before doing many interviews.
Say what? No, she hasn't chatted with voters, but she's appeared before tens of thousands of them, with full TV coverage. As far as reporters being ushered away, sounds like a page out of the Reagan playbook: Speak over the heads of the media, and directly to the people. Good strategy, considering the behavior of the press.
Is that a serious statement? Does the reporter remember back more than two weeks? I recall months and months when Barack Obama didn't answer questions from the press. The word "spontaneous" has never been used to describe his campaign.
She did put it on eBay. Eventually the state sold it. The people of Alaska saved millions, and that's the point. Yuch. September 9, 2008. Permalink
And that's change we can believe in. SMEARING SARAH Posted at 5:33 p.m. ET The smear campaign against Sarah Palin continues. Annenberg's excellent FactCheck.org is on the case, documenting the distortions about Governor Palin:
This is excellent work. Annenberg also says:
Some of you may have gotten that e-mail. I think Annenberg is the only group to track it down. I hope you read the whole piece. It's well worth it. September 9, 2008. Permalink
Further, the awards are being presented in a gala on December 7th, another tasteless move. Pearl Harbor Day has always been honored, except apparently by certain members of the Washington/arts axis. Such superior people. So much more important than the country's sensibilities.
TRACKERS Posted at 1:33 p.m. ET Both trackers for today are now out. As reported below, Rasmussen has the race tied among LVs (likely voters). He had McCain up one yesterday. Gallup has McCain up five among RVs (registered voters), the same as yesterday's result. By contrast, Obama had expanded his lead through Tuesday of the week following his convention, the first full day of the Republican conclave. But, of course, there was not yet anything to compare with, as Sarah hadn't yet made her acceptance speech. Gallup notes:
But we must caution, as do those ads for investments, that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is an unusual race, the conventions were held late, and the internet is a more powerful factor than ever. No guarantees here. Hard work ahead. Also, I'd like to repeat the admonition given to me by a very experienced news executive, also an Urgent Agenda subscriber: Be cautious about pollsters interpreting their own polls. Remember, they have a reputation to defend, and they sometimes have biases. We'll be looking at a number of polls, and how they trend over time. September 9, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 1:12 P.M. ET: From AFP — "More Americans would cast ballots for Republican Sarah Palin than for Democrat Joe Biden if they were able to vote for a vice president independent of their presidential choice, a US poll released Tuesday found." Actual result from the poll - 53-44, in favor of Palin. Barack Obama must be celebrating his choice of vice president.
We await the Gallup tracker this afternoon.
Gallup reports McCain leading among independents, 52-37.
SMALLNESS Posted at 7:14 a.m. ET One of the things we start to notice about Barack Obama is his smallness. Yes, there are many admirable things about him - his struggle, his respect for education, his fine family. But there is about him a smallness, underlined by his refusal even to consider seriously Hillary Clinton for the second spot on his ticket. Now we see him debating, in public appearances, Sarah Palin. Isn't that Biden's job? When have you ever seen a presidential candidate taking on the opposition's number two? And whatever happened to Biden? Is he working? On vacation? Does he go outside? I watched Obama on the O'Reilly Factor. You can't help but be impressed by his style, his presence. But I didn't feel I was watching a presidential candidate. I felt I was watching someone who might run someday. Same with his interview on ABC on Sunday. There is the smallness factor again. Jack Kennedy had a bit of that problem. He was a junior senator when he ran. He looked younger than his 43 years. His daughter Caroline, now an Obama booster, was younger than are the Obama daughters. Eleanor Roosevelt publicly questioned his ability to be president. There was a smallness, especially compared with five-star-General Dwight D. Eisenhower, the man in the White House. But Kennedy overcame the smallness by putting a larger man than he, Senate Majority Leader Lyndon B. Johnson, on his ticket. He overcame it by writing books on history, not on himself. He had fought in a war, and been wounded. You felt there was potential, although many voters were hard to convince, and his ultimate victory on election day was razor-thin. Obama clearly was not prepared for the blowout success of the Republican convention. No one on in his corner was prepared for Governor Sarah. The McCain team seems large - a war hero with the wisdom of age at its top, a political phenomenon filling out the ticket. Obama now seems to exist in the shadow of the other side, and the guy he picked for vice president has all but disappeared. Now we see, in today's New York Times, that he's having money troubles for the first time in his run for the presidency. In the 1980 campaign we saw the increasingly shrinking Jimmy Carter, and the growing Ronald Reagan. We are seeing it again. Unless Barack Obama can overcome the image of smallness that has now infected his campaign, he will be worse than toast. He will be the slice you discard because it got burned. Obama is in the process of getting burned by a man old enough to be his father, and by a firestorm named Sarah. September 9, 2008. Permalink
Posted at 7:12 a.m. ET As we focus on our political campaign, we should always remember that there's a real world out there, full of threats. Thursday marks the seventh anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The boys in the caves are undoubtedly planning future spectaculars. We had a mixed day yesterday. The British trial of those charged with plotting to blow up airliners over the Atlantic ended in some convictions of some of the defendants, but not of others. And even those convicted were not convicted on the top charge. Of course, The New York Times put the worst possible face on the outcome in its headline: No One Convicted of Terror Plot to Bomb Planes London's Telegraph was considerably more precise: Airliner bomb trial: Three British Muslims guilty of conspiracy to murder The New York Times always seems so gleeful when a terror trial doesn't result in a home run for the prosecution. At the same time, Con Coughlin, one of Britain's best terrorism reporters, reports the latest on the attempts by terror groups to develop a "dirty" nuclear weapon. This is important:
And...
And...
The "small" area of contamination might have to be abandoned for some time. Imagine that happening in New York's financial district, the Capitol area in Washington, which includes the Supreme Court, or even the Mall of America in Minnesota.
Finally...
Now which candidate for president do you think might take this seriously? Class? September 9, 2008. Permalink
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2008
UPDATE AT 11:21 P.M. ET: From The Politico: Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will speak at her son’s Army deployment ceremony on 9/11 and spend two days with ABC News crews later this week as part of a McCain campaign plan to increase Americans’ comfort with her as a leader. Campaign and network officials had said on Sunday that her first television interview would be a sit-down with Charles Gibson of ABC’s “World News.” But it turns out that she is spending much of Thursday and Friday with Gibson — at the ceremony in Fairbanks, Alaska, and at her home in Wasilla, Alaska.
KRISTOL Posted at 7:24 p.m. ET Bill Kristol, in today's New York Times, assesses the reaction to the McCain's selection of Sarah Palin, and also provides a very useful history lesson for those concerned about the experience factor. First, on news coverage of Palin:
Having been in journalism, I can report that Kristol is dead on. Many journalists are frustrated that they lack actual decision-making power. So they go for the next best thing - influencing the decision makers. When they're ignored, they pout. How will the Obama side deal with Sarah Palin?
Kristol presents the record:
There is, though, a uniqueness about Sarah Palin:
But be careful of those gatekeepers, the disappointed journalists who weren't consulted, whose Georgetown-party advice was not taken. In a close race, their coverage can make the difference. We'll be watching closely to see whether McCain retains his convention bounce over the next week or two, or whether the race slides back to where it was in August - close, but with Obama leading. Right now, Obama is playing defense, thrown by the success of the GOP convention, and by the magic of Sarah. Expect that playbook to change. Chicago-based politicians don't play defense very long. September 8, 2008. Permalink
BULLETIN AT 6:24 P.M. ET: A new CBS News poll just released has McCain up two. CBS News reports:
More progress. Much work to do.
BULLETIN AT 6:06 P.M. ET: A new ABC News/Washington Post poll of likely voters has McCain up two. ABC's The Page reports some internals:
McCain/Palin still have work to do on the "change" and "values" issues, but the rest is moving right along.
UPDATE AT 4:14 P.M. ET: A new PPP poll has Obama up by only one point in the traditionally Democratic state of Michigan. It is hard to see how Obama can win the election if he can't carry Michigan, and he traditionally polls better than he delivers. Key question: This reflects the McCain/Palin convention bounce. Will it last? You can be sure the McCain side will pour it on in Michigan.
POLLS Posted at 2:04 p.m. ET Both trackers for the day have now been published. As noted below, Rasmussen gives McCain a one-point lead among likely voters. (Please read his explanation in our 9:38 a.m. bulletin.) The Gallup tracker now gives McCain a five-point lead among registered voters. That contrasts with Obama's eight-point lead six days ago. That's a decline for Obama of 13 points. There are two new standard polls up. CNN has the race tied, as does Hotline. No poll posted today has Obama with a lead. We stress again that a poll is a snapshot in time. The results today reflect the McCain convention bounce and his selection of Sarah Palin. It remains to be seen whether that bounce will be maintained, grow, or erode. But it's a good feeling to be making progress. September 8, 2008. Permalink
We await the Gallup tracker this afternoon.
AS OF NOW Posted at 7:54 a.m. ET That's an important phrase in following politics - "as of now." For those of us of a certain persuasion, the last day has been exhilarating. The standard Gallup Poll has McCain/Palin up ten points among likely voters. But please remember that Obama was up eight only six days ago in the Gallup tracker (taken among registered voters). And think back two weeks, B.P. - before Palin. It was an entirely different race. Is it really possible that McCain announced her selection only 10 days ago? A week is three lifetimes in politics. We are not, as some commentators say, entering the homestretch of this campaign. That occurs in October. We are just beginning the main campaign itself. There are debates ahead, with their hazards, and their sometimes biased moderators. There are interviews. There are potential embarrassing moments, or revelations. There are international events, including a possible terror attack, that could change everything. There is the chance that a candidate could fall ill. So everything we say is "as of now." We can bask in the success of the last week, but there is hard work ahead, and media misbehavior to battle. A word about Sarah Palin: I've been following politics since...well, for a long time. It was different then, listening to Lincoln and Douglas. I was the only one in the crowd with a digital camera. But in all my years, Sarah Palin is the most phenomenal political personality I've seen. She's being compared to Ronald Reagan, but I think the comparison is wrong. Reagan was a magnificent speaker, but in a different, more regal way. The better comparison, I think, is to Franklin D. Roosevelt. Like Roosevelt, Palin has a way of reaching people, of speaking directly to us, as Roosevelt did in his fireside chats. Bill Clinton may feel our pain, but Palin has experienced our pain. There is a famous story about the day Roosevelt died. A reporter noticed a soldier standing at the White House gate, and crying. The reporter asked, "Did you know him?" The soldier replied, "No, but he knew me." That is the feeling people get with Sarah Palin. She connects. She understands. She is incredibly articulate, one of the clearest, most understandable speakers I've ever heard. And she has a wonderful, genuine voice. Many people who speak publicly try to eliminate any regional accent. She has not done so. She is from somewhere. She has roots, a home, a place. Somewhere real. September 8, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 7:16 A.M. ET: Last night we reported, via Drudge, that The New York Times was preparing a story on Sarah Palin's new baby. We feared the worst. But the story is now up, and it's a reasonable reporting job. Nothing inflammatory. Nothing to see here, nothing to see. There are a few lines that seem to pose questions about Governor Palin's judgment, but they are well within professional bounds.
PERSONNEL NOTES Posted at 6:58 a.m. ET Some stories take on a delight of their own. Apparently, the ruling classes at NBC have finally realized that running a news outlet that raises mental-health questions is not a good idea. It's especially not a good idea when the outlet is frantically leftist, and it suddenly appears that the left-wing guy may not become president. There are, therefore, personnel changes at MSNBC. The New York Times tells the story:
This is the correct move. Executing it will have to be done carefully so it isn't just cosmetic.
I was taught a wonderful notion at Columbia's Graduate School of Journalism: "Never underestimate the viewer's intelligence, never overestimate the viewer's knowledge." MSNBC consistently underestimates the intelligence of viewers. It became, in recent months particularly, a childlike operation.
That is correct.
That is a ridiculous statement, and thorough disingenuous. "Passion and point of view"? What point of view would that be?
I guess they didn't like "passion and point of view."
Most unfortunate. Also unfortunate is that the people who run MSNBC don't understand why Fox is so successful. It does things well, that's why. Its news broadcasts are straightforward. It's commentary shows are clearly commentary. Although considered "conservative" it gives liberals a fair shot. Its panels during the convention were the best, and kept disciplined. There are reasons for success. September 8, 2008. Permalink
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